The sharp fall in oil price is positive for oil marketers as subsidy concerns reduce further.
Petrol and diesel prices were cut by Rs 2 per litre each as state-owned oil companies ended a nearly two-year-long hiatus in rate revision, just hours before the general election schedule was announced.
The rupee slumped 5 per cent in 2025 as persistent capital outflows from foreign investors, alongside heightened dollar demand from importers, making it one of the worst-performing Asian currencies.
Crude oil prices have fallen to below $113 a barrel this week from all-time high of $147 per barrel witnessed last month. The basket of crude oil India buys averaged $109.88 per barrel, down from $119 a barrel price on June 4 when petrol, diesel and domestic cooking gas prices were raised.
Driven by GST reforms, robust festive demand, and softening raw material prices, the FMCG industry expects volume-based growth, supported by a mid-single digit revenue rise and improved operating margins in the December quarter.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty declined on Monday, extending the losing run to the fourth day amid selling in IT shares and foreign fund outflows. The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped by 247.01 points or 0.30 per cent to settle at 82,253.46. During the day, it fell 490.09 points or 0.59 per cent to 82,010.38 but recovered some of the losses towards the close.
The rupee, which fell 8.88 per cent since the beginning of September to an all-time low of less than 49 per dollar last week, has negated much of the impact of an over 45 per cent dip in crude oil prices since early July. As the value of the rupee falls, the companies have to pay more for crude oil in rupee terms, resulting in increased under-realisation on the fuels that they sell.
On October 31, the government exempted jet fuel from 5 per cent import duty. Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum cut jet fuel or aviation turbine fuel price from November 1 in Delhi by Rs 9,429.87 per kl to Rs 47,017.93 per kl, in line with fall in international oil prices.
Air passengers might have a reason to smile this Diwali season as average airfares on many domestic routes have dropped 20-25 per cent compared to the year-ago period, according to an analysis. Increased capacity and the recent fall in oil prices are considered to be among the factors for the fall in air ticket prices. The analysis by travel portal ixigo showed that average airfare on the domestic routes have declined in the range of 20-25 per cent.
The rupee plunged 26 paise to an all-time low of 90.75 against the US dollar in intra-day trade on Monday, weighed down by uncertainty over an India-US trade deal and persistent foreign fund outflows.
'Trump had done a deal with the current regime minus Maduro. The current regime is giving Trump entry into Venezuelan oil. They are obeying him and doing whatever he says.' 'They are happy because they have saved their heads by sacrificing only two, Maduro and his wife. Thousands of Venezuelan military leaders would have been jailed or killed in American action had Maduro stayed in power.'
Analysts forecast the fuel at $85 a barrel in 2015 and $90 a barrel in 2016; politics, demand-supply to pressure crude.
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Petrol and diesel prices were on Thursday cut for the second straight day as international oil prices cooled fell on prospects of speedy recovery in consumption getting clouded by second wave of COVID-19 cases. Petrol price was cut by 21 paise per litre and diesel by 20 paise, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. Petrol now costs Rs 90.78 per litre in Delhi and a litre of diesel comes for Rs 81.10.
Petrol and diesel prices on Thursday climbed to fresh highs in the country as rates were hiked by the most in recent times, even as fuel retailers said the government can cut taxes to ease consumer burden. Petrol and diesel price was hiked by 35 paise per litre each after a gap of a week, according to price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. The increase took petrol prices to a fresh high of Rs 86.65 a litre in Delhi and to Rs 93.20 in Mumbai.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its partners, such as Russia, collectively termed Opec+, have decided to cut crude oil production by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October onwards, at a meeting on Monday. In a step that may increase prices in India, the group has decided to reduce output quotas for October, after a fall in global oil demand outlook. The cut in output is equal to 0.1 per cent of global supply.
A swift recovery in oil demand in India is not only helping the stability of the global market, it is giving huge fiscal headroom to the government in terms of additional excise duty.
Trends in the global energy markets are crucial if India's growth outlook is to remain healthy. Prices for the Indian crude basket were averaging around $86.2 per barrel through Q1FY25 and then moderated to $84 in July and to $78-79 in August (so far). But global crude supply may outpace weak global demand in the short term.
India's exports contracted 11.8 per cent to $34.38 billion in October, showed government data released on Monday. Imports jumped 16.63 per cent to $76.06 billion.
Wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth month in a row in July at (-)1.36 per cent, even though prices of food items, especially vegetables, skyrocketed. The inflation, however, has inched up from (-)4.12 per cent recorded in June fuelled by 62.12 per cent rise in vegetable prices. In July last year, wholesale price index (WPI) was 14.07 per cent.
India's merchandise trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, as gold imports trebled and outbound shipments registered their sharpest contraction in 14 months, according to data released by the commerce department.
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum recorded profit on the sale of petrol and diesel, the first in three years, on the back of falling international oil prices, industry sources said. The three firms are moping up a neat Rs 11.99 per litre margin on petrol and Rs 4.13 a litre on diesel sale.
'In the long run, India's strong growth story and reforms to make assets globally attractive will determine the rupee's resilience.'
Investors attribute some of the growth in Indian stocks, that saw Bombay's benchmark BSE index rise nearly a third in 2014, to the election of a pro-business government in May, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Among the Sensex firms, Maruti, NTPC, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, JSW Steel, ITC and Mahindra & Mahindra were the major laggards. Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were among the gainers.
Signs of a strong pickup in hiring by companies are adding to the rosier outlook for Indian households.
Investors lost Rs 24.69 lakh crore in market valuation in the last four days of severe drubbing in the equity market. Spike in global crude prices, unabated foreign fund outflows, a strong US jobs data diminishing early rate cut expectations, and the rupee logging its steepest single-day fall in nearly two years dampened investors' sentiment.
Tata Steel was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, sliding 8.59 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, Adani Ports, IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharmaceutical, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and NTPC, were the major laggards. On the other hand, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, Nestle India, ICICI Bank, ITC, Asian Paints and Axis Bank were among the gainers.
There is no payment problem for Russian crude, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Wednesday. He said there is no proposal to cut retail fuel prices at the moment. Addressing a press conference, the minister said India enjoys a buyers' position and foreign suppliers are approaching Indian companies with offers to sell oil.
'The US is strongly placed to expand its crude supplies to India.'
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State-owned oil marketing companies have cut the prices of aviation turbine fuel, or jet fuel, by 12 per cent from midnight tonight - the first fortnightly price revision.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday lowered the inflation projection for the current fiscal to 4 per cent from 4.2 per cent earlier, taking into account good agricultural output and falling crude prices.
International oil prices have hit a six-month low, helping Indian fuel retailers breakeven on petrol but they continue to lose money on diesel - the most used fuel in the country, officials said. The world's best-known crude benchmark, Brent was trading at $94.91 per barrel on Thursday after concerns of a global recession led to it slipping to a six-month low of $91.51 on the previous day. The current rates are a relief to India, which is 85 per cent dependent on imports for meeting its oil needs.
For now, the upside appears to offset damage done to exports by weaker global demand.
US commercial crude oil stocks were forecast to have risen by 3 million barrels last week
The RBI on Wednesday slashed key interest rate by 25 basis points, for the second time in a row, to support a shuttering economy hit by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US. Following the rate cut, the key policy rate eased to 6 per cent providing relief to home, auto and corporate loan borrowers.
India is 80 per cent import dependent to meet its oil needs.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty fell for the third day running on Friday due to weak trends in global markets and soaring crude oil prices. Foreign fund outflows also weighed on investor sentiments amid strengthening US bond yields which are nearing 5 per cent for the first time since 2007. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 231.62 points or 0.35 per cent to settle at 65,397.62.
